Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 20.549238 22.405393 24.465226 26.943595 29.876460 33.278463 37.587541
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.846344 20.286764 23.203685 27.030308 32.054981 38.649256 48.390637
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.843074 18.540422 21.940609 26.704229 33.512717 43.484731 60.660422
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.501356 17.363421 21.129242 26.705893 35.304526 49.310323 77.824634
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.389392 16.313543 20.290756 26.448660 36.571977 54.733312 98.644426
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.487110 15.428437 19.538516 26.144633 37.632641 60.195690 125.721536
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.761214 14.705331 18.916004 25.911049 38.719340 66.205490 164.314883
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.163467 14.103738 18.396087 25.742913 39.861340 72.957677 223.415362
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.551088 13.429008 17.692665 25.151520 40.017074 77.409285 291.125253
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.363454 13.358720 17.910977 26.189051 43.830377 94.850042 632.611706
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.941977 12.904573 17.471003 25.958047 44.768037 104.207207 1254.807722
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.618932 12.577397 17.206541 26.016495 46.417662 118.108453 6421.350614
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.336821 12.300035 17.008509 26.193419 48.490564 137.189651 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.067742 12.026480 16.794183 26.309830 50.477335 159.967109 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.755406 11.666724 16.404095 26.013480 51.234362 177.874162 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.515036 11.408779 16.172028 26.022126 52.935217 207.939892 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.256332 11.107824 15.842493 25.779061 53.798427 235.394733 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.009972 10.815277 15.508947 25.489292 54.448247 265.320956 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.789890 10.555837 15.219018 25.266119 55.288066 304.495718 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.592731 10.325527 14.968120 25.105261 56.330783 357.484770 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.355297 10.019107 14.560474 24.538287 55.717215 380.487391 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.327620 10.060594 14.799785 25.533038 61.590313 663.922129 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.154538 9.849664 14.550772 25.311702 62.425349 836.469706 NaN